News from the frontier of AI forecasting

FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.

Forecasts

2026-07-15The Forecasting Machine

Will Russia Accept a Permanent Ukraine Ceasefire by the End of 2026?

The Forecasting Machine gives Russia only about a 7% chance of accepting a permanent ceasefire by the end of 2026 as active fighting and incompatible terms outweigh mounting pressure for a deal.

2026-03-04The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind and beBartlet bring prediction markets to European strategic consulting

At Mobile World Congress in Barcelona on 4 March 2026, Hypermind and the Spanish public-affairs consultancy beBartlet announced an exclusive alliance to use crowd forecasting and prediction markets in strategic advice across Europe.

2026-01-31The Forecasting Machine

How the OECD’s foresight unit fits crowd and AI forecasting into policy planning

From a Paris meeting of government foresight teams in October 2025 to an EU expert hearing in January 2026, the OECD’s Strategic Foresight Unit has set out where Glimt and The Forecasting Machine fit, and where they don’t.

2025-05-20The Forecasting Machine

AI gathers, crowds guess: Servan-Schreiber’s hybrid forecasting model in Prague

At the Europe as a Task conference in Prague in May 2025, Émile Servan-Schreiber split forecasting into information gathering, where AI now leads, and guessing, where crowds still take better-calculated risks.

2023-09-20The Forecasting Machine

“Governing is predicting”: crowd forecasting at the Brussels Democracy Lab

At a Democracy Lab on smarter crowdsourcing in Brussels on 19 September 2023, Émile Servan-Schreiber gave EU policymakers five reasons to use crowd forecasting, starting with the idea that governing is predicting.