2026 U.S. Senate Elections

Behind the forecast

Hinson is a very slight favorite: the forecast assigns her party a 51.6% chance of winning, against 48.1% for Democrats and 0.3% for an independent or other candidate. Iowa’s Republican lean still matters, but the close polling and unusually favorable national climate for Democrats have turned what might usually be a clear Republican advantage into a near coin flip.

Democratic Party — 48.1%: The national tide and close polls give Turek a real path

The latest polling makes Josh Turek’s case more than hypothetical. Rasmussen, YouGov, and Marist each showed him narrowly ahead, while Emerson put Ashley Hinson ahead by two points; taken together, the surveys describe a contest with no durable polling leader rather than a settled Republican race. The race is also widely treated as a toss-up, and Iowa’s first congressional district has recently shifted toward Democrats—evidence of an unsettled political environment, though not a direct forecast of the Senate result.

The broader climate strengthens Turek’s prospects.…

Behind the forecast

Texas is still structurally Republican, but the current matchup and national environment make Democrat James Talarico the more likely winner: Democratic Party, 58.0%; Republican Party, 41.6%; Other Party / Independent, 0.4%. That is a meaningful Democratic edge, not a prediction that Texas’s partisan history has disappeared.

The case for Talarico: A close race in a difficult year for Republicans

The latest polling gives Talarico a narrow but consequential lead: the RealClearPolitics average has him ahead by 2.2 points, while an October University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll found him leading among women and suburban voters. This follows months of competitive polling, often with Talarico ahead, rather than a single isolated result. Polls can miss, especially in Texas, but an advantage that persists across surveys is harder to dismiss as noise.

The national backdrop strengthens the case that the contest could break from Texas’s usual pattern. Several October polls show Democrats leading on the generic congressional ballot, and surveys find broad dissatisfaction with President Trump and the country’s direction.…

Behind the forecast

Marshall is favored to hold Kansas’s Senate seat, but this is no longer a routine Republican win: the forecast gives the Republican Party a 60.1% chance, the Democratic Party 39.5%, and an Other Party/Independent candidate 0.4%. The race’s unusual competitiveness is real; so is the state’s durable Republican lean.

Republican Party — 60.1%: A strong baseline, but a narrower path

Kansas has not elected a Democrat to a full Senate term since 1932, and Marshall won by more than 11 points in 2020. That record makes a Republican hold the natural starting point, especially with Marshall as the incumbent and the state’s partisan alignment still weighing heavily in his favor.

But the signs of strain are no longer easy to dismiss. Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the race to Toss-Up, while recent polls range from a narrow Marshall lead to small Hamilton leads. Hamilton’s roughly $11 million third-quarter haul, endorsements from former Republican governors Bill Graves and Mike Hayden, and Democratic-leaning national polling all make this a substantially tougher contest for Marshall than the state’s history alone would imply.…

Behind the forecast

The Democratic Party is favored at 63.3%, with the Republican Party at 36.3% and Other / Independent at 0.5%. Jackson’s consistent polling lead and the strong anti-Republican national climate outweigh, but do not erase, Collins’s unusual ability to win over voters who otherwise lean Democratic.

Democratic Party — 63.3%: A steady lead in an unfavorable year for Republicans

Jackson has led by 2 to 4 points in three recent surveys, including a Suffolk poll showing him ahead 49% to 47%; the earlier UNH poll also put him in front. These are narrow leads, but their consistency is more persuasive than a single favorable result. Nationally, Democrats hold leads of roughly 9 to 12 points on the generic ballot, while Trump’s approval is low and underwater in all seven Senate races rated toss-ups by Cook. Collins is also facing a personal liability unusual for her: negative favorability among unaffiliated voters and a net-negative approval rating.

Jackson’s path is not simply a product of the national mood. He is a longtime Maine politician who replaced Graham Platner after Platner withdrew amid controversy, and the party’s delegates chose Jackson overwhelmingly.…

Behind the forecast

Michigan is a close race, but the latest polls, a strongly Democratic national environment, and Abdul El-Sayed’s fundraising advantage make him the favorite: Democrat 65.0%, Republican 34.5%, Other 0.5%. Mike Rogers remains a substantial threat, given his narrow 2024 loss, Republican investment, and the vulnerabilities his campaign is pressing.

Democrat — 65.0%: A modest edge built on a favorable tide

The clearest change since the spring is that recent polling now points the other way. Marist found El-Sayed ahead 50% to 48%, and InsiderAdvantage also gave him a two-point lead—small margins, but two readings in the same direction after an earlier poll showed Rogers ahead. The broader national setting adds weight: recent surveys show Democrats leading the congressional ballot, while President Trump’s approval is low and his standing is underwater in Michigan and other toss-up Senate states.

El-Sayed also enters the final stretch with a large fundraising advantage: his campaign reported raising $30.66 million in the third quarter, compared with Rogers’s $9.66 million. Obama is set to campaign with him, and AOC and Mamdani have also lent their support.…

Behind the forecast

Peltola is favored, but this remains a competitive race: the forecast gives the Democratic Party a 67.4% chance of winning, the Republican Party 32.2%, and an Other / Independent candidate 0.4%. The edge comes from repeated polling that puts Peltola ahead in ranked-choice simulations and a strong national environment for Democrats; Alaska’s Republican lean, turnout uncertainty, and Sullivan’s incumbency keep a Republican win quite plausible.

Democratic Party — 67.4%: A narrow polling lead meets a favorable national tide

Recent Alaska polling points consistently, though narrowly, toward Peltola. Data for Progress put her ahead 51–49 in a simulated final round, while InsiderAdvantage found her leading Sullivan 50.1–48 after ranked-choice tabulation; Rasmussen also showed her ahead on first preferences, and two other recent ranked-choice simulations had her winning. She also led the August primary, taking 49.5% to Sullivan’s 41.4%. These are not commanding margins, but their convergence matters—especially because the ranked-choice results address the final matchup rather than only voters’ first choices.

The broader political climate adds weight to that evidence.…

Behind the forecast

Ricketts is favored, but Osborn has a substantial path to an upset: the forecast assigns 69.3% to the Republican Party, 30.7% to Other / Independent, and 0.1% to the Democratic Party. Nebraska’s Republican lean and late GOP spending keep Ricketts ahead, while close polling, Osborn’s earlier crossover appeal, and a strongly anti-Republican national climate make this far more competitive than the state’s usual baseline would suggest.

Republican Party — structural advantage, reinforced late

Nebraska remains a difficult state for an independent challenger: it has a Cook PVI around R+10, a large Republican registration advantage, and no independent has won a Senate seat there since 1936. Ricketts also benefits from incumbency and a major late advertising push. The Senate Leadership Fund committed $15 million, while Fairshake and Defend American Jobs also spent heavily against Osborn. Trump campaigned with Ricketts, and JD Vance planned a Nebraska rally, reinforcing the Republican turnout effort.

The polling gives Ricketts reason for concern, but not certainty that the race has shifted.…

Behind the forecast

Sherrod Brown is favored to win Ohio’s 2026 Senate election, with a 75.8% chance of a Democratic victory; Jon Husted has a 24.0% chance, and another party has a 0.2% chance. Brown’s late polling leads and a strongly Democratic national environment outweigh Ohio’s Republican lean, though neither factor eliminates the risk of a polling miss or GOP-favorable turnout.

Democrat — 75.8%: A durable lead in a favorable year

The strongest evidence for Brown is the consistency of recent polling. He leads 49–44 in the CNN Poll of Polls and 48–44 in a Marist poll, while an October BGSU/YouGov poll puts Democratic candidates six points ahead in both the Senate and gubernatorial races. That pollster had shown Husted ahead earlier in the year, making the shift especially notable. Earlier Fox News polls also showed Brown with substantial leads.

Brown’s appeal is not entirely new. He has won statewide before and, in 2024, ran well ahead of the Democratic presidential ticket despite losing his Senate race narrowly. His long-standing name recognition and relative favorability give him a plausible path in a state where a generic Democrat might struggle more.…

Behind the forecast

Peggy Flanagan is favored to hold Minnesota’s Senate seat: the forecast is Democratic Party 80.5%, Republican Party 19.2%, and Other Party 0.3%. The race has tightened enough to make a Tafoya victory plausible, but recent polls still show Flanagan ahead, and Minnesota’s partisan lean and the national climate give her the stronger position.

Democratic Party — 80.5%: A narrow lead with sturdy support

Minnesota’s long record of electing Democratic senators is a powerful starting point: the DFL has won every Senate race since 2002. Flanagan also remains ahead in recent polling, with leads of three to four points in the Star Tribune/KARE 11 and KSTP/SurveyUSA surveys, and roughly three points in the RealClearPolitics average. That is a real, if not comfortable, advantage.

The broader political environment is favorable to Democrats. Recent national polls show them leading the generic ballot by nine to twelve points, while Trump’s approval remains low. That tailwind does not guarantee a win in any individual race, but it raises the bar for a Republican upset in a Democratic-leaning state.

Republican Party — 19.2%: A credible route, built on local vulnerability…

Behind the forecast

Annie Andrews has a 19.3% chance of winning; Darline Graham is strongly favored, with an 80.8% chance of holding the seat. The race is much closer than South Carolina’s political history would predict, but close polling and Democratic tailwinds have not yet outweighed Graham’s consistent polling edge, Republican advantage in the state, and late campaign support.

Yes — Andrews wins (19.3%) | A real opening, but a narrow one

The case for Andrews starts with a race that has defied the usual South Carolina script. Several polls have put Graham only one to three points ahead, prompting ratings changes from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican” and then “Republican leaning”. Andrews also raised substantially more than Graham in the third quarter, and national polling points to a strong Democratic environment, with Democrats leading the generic ballot and President Trump’s approval low.

Those advantages are reinforced by signs of unusually high Democratic energy. Richland County’s first-day early-voting total was more than twice its 2022 figure, and national Democratic figures campaigned for Andrews.…

Behind the forecast

Mississippi’s deep Republican alignment makes a Hyde-Smith victory far more likely, but unusually close polling, a strong Democratic national environment, and late campaign investment leave Scott Colom a real path. The forecast is 12.0% Yes and 88.0% No.

Yes — A narrow opening for Colom

Colom’s strongest case is that this race looks less lopsided than Mississippi’s recent presidential results would suggest. An October poll put Hyde-Smith ahead by just four points, within its margin of error; an August survey had shown a six-point lead, while an April poll also found a narrow gap. The polling is limited and not definitive, but the close October result, together with handicappers moving the contest away from “solid” or “safe” Republican territory, signals genuine vulnerability.

The broader climate could help him: Democrats hold a substantial lead on the national generic ballot, while President Trump’s approval is weak nationally. Colom has also raised and spent competitively, and Senate Majority PAC has entered with a late $1.2 million advertising effort criticizing Hyde-Smith’s record, including her Medicaid votes.…

Behind the forecast

Angie Nixon has a 10.8% chance of winning; Ashley Moody is favored, with No at 89.3%. The Democratic tailwinds are real, but they have not erased Moody’s polling lead or Florida’s Republican advantage.

The path to a Nixon upset: a wave, plus a closer race than the average suggests

The national environment is unusually favorable to Democrats: they lead the generic congressional ballot by about nine points, while President Trump’s approval is in the mid-30s. In Florida, one September poll found Nixon and Moody tied, and Democrats registered more voters than Republicans in a single month for the first time since 2021. Nixon also raised more than Moody in the third quarter, drew large crowds at rallies with Bernie Sanders, and has used a disputed Medicaid-to-nonprofit transfer tied to Moody as an attack line.

These are meaningful ingredients for an upset: a national wave can lift down-ballot candidates, fundraising can help a campaign reach voters, and a controversy can weaken an incumbent. But none alone shows that Nixon has overcome Moody’s advantage statewide.

The case for Moody: Florida’s baseline and the polling still matter…

Behind the forecast

Jamie Davis has a real but narrow path: the available polls show a close race, and the national environment is unusually favorable to Democrats. But Louisiana’s strong Republican lean, Julia Letlow’s advantages in money and visibility, and the absence of a poll showing Davis ahead leave him a clear underdog: 10.5% Yes, 89.5% No.

Yes — 10.5%: A close race creates an opening

The strongest case for Davis is that this contest looks much closer than Louisiana’s recent Senate history would suggest. July and September surveys each put Letlow ahead by four points, though the September poll was commissioned by Democratic interests and neither survey showed Davis leading. The polls are a limited snapshot, not a verdict—but a small gap gives Davis a plausible route if undecided voters break his way or the state responds to a broader Democratic wave.

That wave is a meaningful tailwind. Democrats lead national generic-ballot polling by substantial margins, while Trump’s approval is weak; those conditions could lift Democratic turnout and narrow the gap even in a Republican state.…

Behind the forecast

Democrats are strongly favored: the forecast is Democratic Party 90.3%, Republican Party 9.6%, and Other Party / Independent 0.2%. Pappas’s clear October polling lead, New Hampshire’s federal-election lean, and a favorable national environment outweigh Sununu’s strengths, though the race’s earlier volatility leaves a meaningful chance of a Republican win.

Democratic Party — 90.3%: A late polling lead in a favorable environment

The race looked close in late August, when a University of New Hampshire poll showed Sununu ahead 45%–43% and an NRSC-commissioned poll had him up 37%–36%. But the subsequent pattern shifted back toward Pappas: a September UNH poll gave him an 8-point lead, and mid-October polls showed him ahead by 7–8 points. The reversal matters, but the more recent state-level readings provide the better guide to the contest’s current shape.

The broader environment reinforces that advantage. National polls show Democrats leading the congressional ballot by roughly 9–12 points, while President Trump’s approval is in the mid-30s; his approval in New Hampshire was also underwater.…

Behind the forecast

Seth Bodnar has an 8.2% chance of winning; Kurt Alme is favored, leaving a 91.8% chance Bodnar does not win. Bodnar’s unusual profile, substantial support, and a favorable national climate create a plausible path—but the polling, Montana’s partisan history, and a still-divided opposition make that path narrow.

Yes — 8.2%: A credible candidate, but a difficult route

Bodnar is not a typical independent: his West Point and Rhodes Scholar credentials, Green Beret service, business experience, and eight years as University of Montana president give him unusual visibility and potential appeal across party lines. He has also raised significant funds, while outside groups have directed millions toward his campaign. Former Senator Jon Tester and former party chair Shannon O’Brien have endorsed him; O’Brien’s decision to resign as state party chair and back Bodnar underscored the intensity of the effort to rally Democrats behind him.

There is a conceivable electoral mechanism: a July head-to-head poll had Bodnar ahead of Alme, suggesting that he could compete if voters opposed to Alme consolidated behind him.…

Behind the forecast

Jon Ossoff is forecast to win reelection with 94.9% probability; Mike Collins has a 5.0% chance, and an “Other” candidate just 0.1%. The evidence points in one direction—persistent polling leads, a large resource advantage, and a national climate unfavorable to Republicans—though Georgia’s history of close races and a sizable undecided bloc leave some room for an upset.

Democrat — 94.9%: A lead with several supports

The strongest evidence is the consistency of Ossoff’s advantage. The latest University of Georgia poll for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution has him ahead 48% to 40%, in line with a months-long run of polls that have all put him in front. The eight-point margin is substantial for a state where statewide contests are often close, and it has held up as Election Day approaches.

The broader environment reinforces that lead. Recent national polling shows Trump with low approval and Democrats ahead on the generic congressional ballot, with the Democratic advantage described as the largest of the cycle. In a Georgia focus group, most of the Trump voters interviewed said they were disappointed with his performance, and most planned to vote for Ossoff.…

Behind the forecast

Charles Booker has a 4.1% chance of winning; Andy Barr is favored, with a 95.9% chance of victory. A sharply pro-Democratic national mood gives Booker a plausible upset path, but it has not yet overcome Kentucky’s deep Republican lean or the available evidence that Barr leads locally.

Yes — 4.1%: A national wave could create an opening

The strongest case for Booker is the national environment. Recent polls show Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by roughly 8 to 12 points, while President Trump’s approval is in the 30s; voters also say the economy and cost of living are central concerns, and national polling gives Democrats an advantage on those issues. Kentucky’s flat employment growth and rising housing and transportation costs could make that message resonate locally.

The open seat helps: Mitch McConnell’s retirement removes an incumbent’s advantage. Barr’s campaign has also removed prominent Trump references, suggesting some awareness that the president’s image may be a liability. Booker has focused on prices and health care, and criticized Barr’s corporate contributions in their debate.…

Behind the forecast

Arkansas’s deep Republican lean, Tom Cotton’s incumbency, the latest polling, and his enormous spending advantage make a Hallie Shoffner victory unlikely. The forecast is Yes: 3.5%; No: 96.5%.

No: The state’s baseline and the latest evidence favor Cotton

Arkansas is not simply a red state; it has recently been an exceptionally difficult one for Democrats. Donald Trump won 64% there in 2024, Republican Senate candidates have won comfortably in recent cycles, and Cook rates the state R+15. Nonpartisan race ratings also describe the contest as safely Republican. Cotton adds the advantages of a two-term incumbent and a 52%–44% job-approval rating.

The clearest recent signal is the October Hendrix poll: Cotton led Shoffner 50%–41%. That is a striking reversal from the same pollster’s August result, when Shoffner was narrowly ahead, and it is consistent with other surveys showing Cotton ahead—by 16 points in a J.L. Partners poll and by 11 points in his campaign’s internal survey. Polls can miss, and a 50% result is not invulnerable, but several points of evidence now point toward a Cotton lead rather than a Shoffner surge.

The resource imbalance reinforces that picture.…

Behind the forecast

Hickenlooper is strongly favored to win: the forecast is Yes 96.7%, against No 3.3%. Colorado’s partisan lean, Hickenlooper’s incumbency and financial advantage, and a Democratic-favorable national climate all point the same way; the small chance of defeat reflects real uncertainty, not a close race in the evidence available.

Yes — Colorado’s fundamentals favor the incumbent

The outside view is favorable to Hickenlooper. Colorado has not elected a Republican statewide since 2016, Democrats have held a state-level trifecta since 2019, and Hickenlooper won this Senate seat from Cory Gardner in 2020. His victory over Julie Gonzales in the primary confirms a base of Democratic support, even if a primary result cannot establish his general-election strength.

The campaign’s resources reinforce that structural advantage. Hickenlooper had raised $11.49 million and held $2.34 million in cash, compared with Baisley’s roughly $138,000 raised and $28,000 in cash. Baisley, a state senator who moved from the governor’s race into the Senate contest, has far less time and money to build statewide recognition.…

Behind the forecast

Brian Bengs has a 3.2% chance of winning; Mike Rounds has a 96.8% chance of retaining the seat. The case for Bengs is real but rests on a strikingly favorable poll, a difficult national environment for Republicans, and the possibility that Rounds’s support is more brittle than the state’s partisan history suggests. The stronger evidence, especially the late polling and South Dakota’s Republican lean, favors Rounds.

Yes — a narrow path through an unusual coalition

Bengs is the only challenger on the ballot after Democratic nominee Julian Beaudion withdrew, though the state party declined to replace him or endorse Bengs. That gives voters dissatisfied with Rounds one clear alternative, and Bengs’s independent pitch—emphasizing honesty, affordability, and opposition to corporate influence—could appeal beyond the usual Democratic base.

There are reasons not to treat a Bengs upset as impossible. A Lake Research Partners survey showed him leading Rounds 51% to 42%, while Bengs has publicized other polling that puts him within striking distance. He also nearly doubled Rounds’s third-quarter fundraising, and independent-aligned groups have spent on his behalf.…

Behind the forecast

Roy Cooper is the overwhelming favorite: the forecast gives the Democratic Party a 97.2% chance of winning, compared with 2.7% for the Republican Party and 0.1% for another party. A long, consistent polling lead and signs that Republicans are pulling back outweigh North Carolina’s Republican-leaning history, though they do not eliminate the possibility of a late surprise.

Democratic Party — 97.2%: A lead that has held and widened

The strongest evidence is the consistency of Cooper’s advantage. Polls have shown him ahead since March, and the latest surveys still put him well into double digits: Elon University/YouGov had Cooper at 52% to Whatley’s 39%, WRAL/WSOC at 54% to 40%, and the Carolina Journal poll at 49.2% to 34.1%. The multiple reports of the Elon result describe the same poll, not separate confirmations. Even so, the breadth of pollsters and the persistence of the gap make it harder to dismiss as a single survey’s quirk.

Other indicators point in the same direction. Cooper has raised far more than Whatley and held a substantial cash-on-hand advantage.…

Behind the forecast

Jeff Merkley is forecast to win with 97.7% probability; a loss is assigned 2.3%. Oregon’s partisan history, Merkley’s incumbency and financial advantage make him a strong favorite, though a competitive state-level political climate and the absence of Senate head-to-head polling leave some room for uncertainty.

Yes — 97.7%: A strong incumbent, a weakly funded challenger

Oregon’s long-running Democratic advantage is the clearest starting point: the state has not elected a Republican senator since 2002, and Merkley won his last two reelections by 19 and 17 points. Its D+8 partisan lean and a Solid Democratic rating reinforce that baseline. Merkley also entered the contest without a major Democratic primary challenge, winning 93.2% of the vote, while David Brock Smith took 29.5% in a seven-candidate Republican primary.

The financial gap is unusually wide. June filings showed Merkley with about $6.8 million in cash on hand, compared with roughly $29,000 for Smith; Merkley had raised nearly $7.9 million, while Smith had raised about $121,000.…

Behind the forecast

Juliana Stratton is a strong favorite: the forecast assigns 97.9% to Yes and 2.1% to No. Illinois’s durable Democratic lean, a favorable national climate, and Stratton’s reported polling and campaign advantages make an upset possible but unlikely.

Yes — a durable advantage, reinforced by the current climate

The starting point is the state, not the campaign’s latest headline. Republicans have not won an Illinois statewide election since 2014, and the state has rejected Trump by double-digit margins in three consecutive presidential elections. Stratton is the Democratic nominee for an open seat after winning a competitive primary; retiring Sen. Dick Durbin’s departure creates an opening, but not a change in the state’s partisan character.

The available race-specific evidence points the same way. A recent poll put Stratton ahead by double digits, though it is a single result rather than a polling average. Her campaign had spent substantially more than Tracy’s through June, while she also had backing from Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Sen. Tammy Duckworth; Barack Obama endorsed her and recorded campaign advertisements.…

Behind the forecast

Todd Achilles has a 2.0% chance of winning; Jim Risch is favored to retain the seat, with a 98.0% chance of a No outcome. Achilles’s consolidation of Democratic support and an unusually favorable national climate create a narrow path, but Idaho’s partisan lean and the late, state-specific polling make that path very unlikely.

Yes — A small opening for a consolidated challenger

Achilles is not simply an independent with no party network: he previously served as a Democrat in the Idaho Legislature, built a campaign through town halls and meet-and-greets, and reported raising $1.5 million. David Roth’s withdrawal left Achilles as the main alternative to Risch, while an August head-to-head poll briefly showed Achilles ahead, 38% to 33%, with many voters undecided. Earlier polling had Risch narrowly ahead, so the summer numbers at least suggested some movement and uncertainty.

The national backdrop also gives Achilles a little room. Democrats led Republicans in several October generic-ballot polls, and President Trump’s national approval was weak.…

Behind the forecast

Mark Warner is strongly favored to win: the forecast is Yes 98.0% and No 1.9%. His incumbency, financial advantage, and a favorable political climate are reinforced by Virginia’s early-voting patterns, though the state’s past volatility and the absence of a public head-to-head poll leave a small chance of an upset.

Yes — 98.0%: The advantages are broad, and the clock is running out

The starting point is a race rated Solid Democratic, with Warner a long-serving incumbent in a state that has recently leaned his way. He won by 12 points in 2020, Tim Kaine won by nearly 9 in 2024, and Abigail Spanberger’s 2025 gubernatorial victory was larger still. Cook’s rating and an August prediction market both treated Warner as a heavy favorite. Warner’s standing with Virginia voters is also favorable: more than half approved of his job performance.

The campaign’s resource gap is striking. Warner raised tens of millions of dollars and had more than $16 million on hand, while Mizusawa raised only a few hundred thousand and had about $53,000 in cash; Republicans have not made the race a priority.…

Behind the forecast

Markey is an overwhelming favorite: the state’s partisan lean, his decisive primary victory, and a 23-point lead in the latest available matchup poll all point in the same direction. The forecast is 98.3% Yes and 1.7% No; the remaining risk reflects the possibility of an unusually large late shift or an unforeseen disruption, not evidence that the race is close.

A strong structural advantage, reinforced by polling

Massachusetts gives Markey a favorable starting point: Republicans have not won a Senate race in the state since 2010, and nonpartisan forecasters rate this contest Solid or Safe Democratic. Deaton’s roughly 40% showing against Elizabeth Warren in 2024 demonstrates that he can attract a meaningful minority, but it also illustrates the challenge of winning statewide in Massachusetts.

The polling points to a substantial, durable advantage for Markey. August surveys had him ahead by 19 to 21 points, and the later UNH poll put him at 53% to Deaton’s 30%, with Joe Tache at 9% and 8% undecided. That newer result offers no sign of the race tightening.…

Behind the forecast

Everett Wess has a 1.6% chance of winning; Barry Moore is favored, with the No outcome at 98.4%. A strong national Democratic climate and signs of increased Democratic engagement create a small opening, but Alabama’s partisan baseline, the direct polling, and the campaigns’ resource imbalance point overwhelmingly to a Moore victory.

Yes — Wess wins (1.6%) | A narrow path through a national wave

The strongest case for Wess is that the national environment is unusually favorable to Democrats. Recent generic-ballot polls show Democratic leads ranging from about eight to twelve points, while President Trump’s approval is weak and many voters say the country is on the wrong track. That kind of wave can make even unlikely races less predictable.

There are some signs of heightened Democratic energy in Alabama: Democrats made up a larger share of primary ballots than four years earlier, Doug Jones has drawn crowds, and Republican leaders have voiced turnout concerns. The July Senate poll also left one in five voters undecided, so its 15-point Moore lead was not a final result.…

Behind the forecast

Luján is overwhelmingly favored to win: Yes 98.6%; No 1.4%. His large, stable state-level lead and Marker’s limited campaign resources make a late reversal unlikely, though not impossible.

Yes — the strong favorite

The clearest evidence is the size and steadiness of Luján’s lead. Albuquerque Journal polls showed him ahead 53%–38% and then 53%–37%, with a 2.9-point margin of error in the later survey. KOAT’s report repeated that October result, so it should not be mistaken for independent confirmation from another pollster. Still, two survey waves with essentially the same large margin are meaningful evidence against a race that is tightening. Luján’s advantage also extends beyond the topline: he leads independents 54%–26% and leads in every region but conservative eastern New Mexico.

The challenger’s path is further narrowed by a substantial resource gap. Marker qualified for the ballot through write-in votes, showing some ability to mobilize Republicans, but his campaign reported just $11,850 in cash on hand compared with Luján’s roughly $4.4 million. Republicans initially failed to field a candidate, and Marker has acknowledged the difficulty of his challenge.…

Behind the forecast

James W. Byrd has a 1.3% chance of winning; Harriet Hageman is overwhelmingly favored, with No at 98.8%. A strong national environment for Democrats offers Byrd a narrow route to an upset, but it is a poor match for Wyoming’s deep Republican lean.

Yes: A narrow opening, not a likely path

The best case for Byrd is that the national climate has turned sharply against Republicans: recent polls put Democrats ahead by 8 to 12 points on the generic ballot, while President Trump’s approval is in the mid-30s. That kind of wave can move races, and Hageman’s refusal to debate Byrd and her shift to a virtual town hall after being heckled offer some evidence of campaign friction. Byrd also brings a decade of experience in the Wyoming House and leadership roles in its Democratic caucus.

But these factors suggest a small chance of an upset, not a competitive race. There is no reported general-election poll showing Byrd close, and his strong Democratic primary showing establishes his nomination rather than his appeal to the statewide electorate. A Democratic wave could narrow Wyoming’s usual Republican margin; it would still have to overcome an unusually large one.…

Behind the forecast

Bradshaw has a 1.1% chance of winning; Hagerty has a 98.9% chance of retaining the seat. A strong national Democratic climate and rising urban turnout give Bradshaw a narrow path, but Tennessee’s Republican lean, the direct polling, and the campaigns’ enormous resource gap make that path exceptionally unlikely.

Yes — 1.1%: A narrow opening, not a demonstrated upset

The best case for Bradshaw is that the national environment has turned sharply against Republicans. Recent generic-ballot polls show Democrats ahead by margins ranging from roughly seven to twelve points, while Trump’s approval is in the 30s. A Tennessee poll also found more voters disapproving than approving of Trump. That climate could help Bradshaw improve on her previous showing.

Turnout offers a further, though uncertain, source of hope. Early voting has been unusually high in Nashville and Davidson County, with a substantial increase also reported in Shelby County—places where Democratic votes matter. But turnout totals do not reveal how those voters are voting, and they do not establish that Republican participation is lagging.…

Behind the forecast

Chris Coons is forecast to win with 99.0% probability; a loss is assigned 1.0%. Delaware’s strong Democratic baseline, Coons’s incumbency and campaign advantages, and the absence of evidence of a close race make defeat possible but highly unlikely.

Yes — A strong baseline reinforced by campaign advantages

Delaware’s partisan history is the most important piece of evidence: Kamala Harris carried the state by about 15 points in 2024, Democrats hold its other federal and statewide offices, and the Senate seat has been Democratic since 2001. Coons also emerged comfortably from a contested primary, winning 78%, and his fundraising advantage is substantial: about $6.9 million compared with roughly $159,000 for Katz.

The Republican nominee has established support among Republican voters: Katz won his primary decisively. But that is not the same as demonstrating statewide appeal. He received only 4% as an independent in the 2024 Senate race, and reported friction within his party—including backlash to his criticism of the GOP House nominee and a write-in challenge from his primary rival—does little to suggest a unified effort behind him.…

Behind the forecast

Rachel Fetty Anderson has a 1.0% chance of winning; Shelley Moore Capito has a 99.0% chance of holding the seat. The Democratic tailwind nationally and signs of local discontent make an upset possible, but they do little to erase West Virginia’s deep Republican lean, Capito’s incumbency, or the enormous gap in campaign resources.

Yes — 1.0%: Discontent offers a narrow opening

The case for Anderson rests chiefly on a favorable national climate for Democrats and some evidence of dissatisfaction within West Virginia. Recent national polls show Democrats leading on the generic congressional ballot, while a state survey found many voters think West Virginia is headed in the wrong direction and that Republican officials bear responsibility. Coal mine closures, with roughly 180 jobs affected, add a concrete source of local economic frustration. Anderson has also criticized corporate monopolies and government policy, and Capito’s absence from a candidate forum gives her an opportunity to argue that the incumbent is not engaging voters.

Those are plausible ingredients for an upset, but they are not evidence that Anderson has built a winning coalition.…

Behind the forecast

Booker is overwhelmingly favored: Yes, 99.1%; No, 0.9%. New Jersey’s long Democratic record, Booker’s substantial advantages in money and incumbency, and a favorable national climate all point the same way. The small chance of a loss reflects the limits of indirect polling and the possibility of an unexpected event, not evidence of a competitive race.

Yes — a strong state and a wide resource gap

The best starting point is the state’s record: no Republican has won a New Jersey Senate seat since 1972, and Booker won reelection by 16 points in 2020. Cook rates the 2026 contest “Solid Democrat”. Those fundamentals make a Republican upset unlikely before considering this year’s candidates.

The campaigns’ resources make the disparity especially stark. Booker reported $22.6 million in cash on hand; Murphy had less than $10,000, despite raising a modest amount after the debate. Murphy won the Republican primary with roughly a third of the vote and has little statewide profile. His “big Muslim problem” remark drew criticism, and at the candidates’ debate he urged Trump to “finish” the war in Iran—comments that could make it harder to broaden his appeal.…

Behind the forecast

Jack Reed is overwhelmingly favored to win: the forecast is Yes 99.3%, No 0.7%. Rhode Island’s partisan lean, Reed’s incumbency and campaign advantages, and a large late poll lead all point in the same direction; the remaining uncertainty is reserved for a rare upset or disruption.

Yes — 99.3%: A commanding lead, reinforced by the fundamentals

The outside view is already favorable to Reed: he is a long-serving Democrat in a deeply blue state, and analysts rate the contest Safe Democratic. That starting advantage is supported by the campaign’s particulars. Reed won 77% in the Democratic primary, and reported about $4.5 million in receipts compared with McKay’s more than $180,000.

The strongest direct evidence is an October poll putting Reed ahead 59% to 25%, a 34-point margin. The broader political climate is also favorable to Democrats: several October generic-ballot measures show leads in the high single digits or more. Early voting is underway, leaving little time for the race to change course. An independent candidate is also on the ballot, but the available evidence gives no indication that Michael Bahry poses a serious threat to Reed.…

Behind the forecast

N’Kiyla Jasmine Thomas has a 0.6% chance of winning; Kevin Hern is favored to win, with No at 99.4%. A Democratic-leaning national climate gives Thomas a sliver of upside, but Oklahoma’s deep Republican tilt and the large gap in campaign resources make an upset extraordinarily unlikely.

Yes — 0.6%: A national tailwind, but a very steep climb

The case for Thomas rests mainly on the broader political environment. Democrats hold a clear lead in national generic-ballot polling, Trump’s approval is low, and Republican support has weakened in recent weeks—conditions that could help Democrats outperform their usual baseline. Tribal political spending has also been substantial, and Thomas’s Chickasaw identity could help her connect with Native voters. Those factors make a Democratic upset possible, rather than logically impossible.

But the national mood is not the same as a competitive Oklahoma Senate race. Thomas won the Democratic runoff with 61.2%, while Hern won the Republican primary with nearly 70%; those results establish their nominations, not evidence that the general election is close.…