News from the frontier of AI forecasting
FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.
Results for “Polymarket”
Polls, Prediction Markets or AI? Servan-Schreiber and Verian’s Laure Salvaing on Reading France’s 2027 Election
In an Atlantico cross-interview, Émile Servan-Schreiber and pollster Laure Salvaing disagreed on what prediction markets measure and whether AI-simulated voters can replace real ones. A B SMART interview the same month added his view that, for forecasting at scale, AI has already won.
Play money, same ballpark: Hypermind’s 12-year accuracy benchmark against Polymarket and Kalshi
Hypermind published the data from 1,141 play-money markets resolved since 2014 and compared them with Polymarket and Kalshi. The report concludes the three are at parity, and an independent commentator agreed that parity, not victory, is the defensible reading.
L’Express Interviews Émile Servan-Schreiber on Polymarket and Money-Free Forecasting
Days after France blocked Polymarket, L’Express interviewed Émile Servan-Schreiber, who argues that cash wagering is not what makes a crowd forecast accurate—and who described The Forecasting Machine’s all-AI system to the paper.
“Supercollective Intelligence”: Servan-Schreiber’s 2018 book on crowds and prediction markets comes out in English
The English edition of Émile Servan-Schreiber’s “Supercollectif” is now on Amazon. He argues that ChatGPT and the rise of Polymarket since 2018 support, rather than overturn, the book’s case.
Red bars and blue bars: how betting markets and forecaster panels split over Harris and Trump
In the final weeks of the 2024 US election, Émile Servan-Schreiber tracked eleven forecasting venues. Real-money markets leaned Trump, forecaster panels leaned Harris, and the result reopened an old argument about what money adds to a forecast.
