News from the frontier of AI forecasting

FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.

2025-10-10The Forecasting Machine

Glimt in Paris: interim results at the Swedish Embassy, then the French press

On 7 October 2025, FOI and Hypermind presented Glimt’s interim record at the Swedish Embassy in Paris: 71% of outcomes called correctly across 31 resolved questions. Le Figaro and France 24 covered the project two weeks later.

2025-05-20The Forecasting Machine

AI gathers, crowds guess: Servan-Schreiber’s hybrid forecasting model in Prague

At the Europe as a Task conference in Prague in May 2025, Émile Servan-Schreiber split forecasting into information gathering, where AI now leads, and guessing, where crowds still take better-calculated risks.

2025-03-19The Forecasting Machine

How humans and an early forecasting AI saw 2030: the OECD's Hypermind pilot

An OECD foresight exercise compared aggregate human forecasts with an early LLM-based system across 25 possible AI benefits and risks to 2030—and emphasized the limits of both.

2025-01-20The Forecasting Machine

Glimt opens to the public: Sweden’s crowd-forecasting platform for Ukraine

On 20 January 2025, FOI opened Glimt, a free platform where volunteers forecast the war, politics and economy questions that Ukrainian analysts worry about, using Hypermind’s technology. Within five weeks it had more than 10,000 forecasters.

2023-10-06The Forecasting Machine

At the OECD’s 2023 foresight meeting, Hypermind shares crowd-forecasting use cases

Servan-Schreiber discussed geopolitics, public health and AI forecasting at the Government Foresight Community’s October 2023 meeting in Paris.

2023-09-20The Forecasting Machine

“Governing is predicting”: crowd forecasting at the Brussels Democracy Lab

At a Democracy Lab on smarter crowdsourcing in Brussels on 19 September 2023, Émile Servan-Schreiber gave EU policymakers five reasons to use crowd forecasting, starting with the idea that governing is predicting.

2023-07-06The Forecasting Machine

How independent errors become a crowd forecast: Hypermind’s four aggregation steps

A July 2023 preview highlighted the value of combining different judgements. Its technical companion explains weighting, culling, averaging and extremizing.

2023-01-17The Forecasting Machine

An 84-minute conversation, then AI-selected clips: Software in Blue on collective intelligence

Steve Mayzak and Chad Tindel’s interview with Émile Servan-Schreiber connected collective intelligence to business forecasting. Two months later, the show used Dubb to select excerpts about cognition and crowd size.

2022-07-11The Forecasting Machine

“Arising Intelligence”: what Hypermind’s crowd got right and wrong about AI progress

From 2021, Hypermind ran contests asking forecasters to predict AI benchmarks with Jacob Steinhardt of UC Berkeley. Progress on maths and language beat the crowd’s expectations; robustness lagged them.

2022-06-02The Forecasting Machine

Learning collective intelligence through student experiments at UM6P

Student surveys, an online social-sensitivity test and a forecaster’s account of reinvesting his winnings show how collective intelligence was taught through practice.

2021-11-21The Forecasting Machine

What 15 months of crowd forecasting taught Johns Hopkins about disease outbreaks

A study by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and Hypermind, published in November 2021, followed 562 forecasters through 61 questions on 19 diseases. The combined crowd forecast was well calibrated, beat chance by a wide margin and outscored every individual, including the public-health experts.

2021-11-17The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind’s Africa of the future contest: Côte d’Ivoire first, a wider agenda next

A November 2021 invitation laid out an Africa-focused forecasting contest, with free participation and a prize pool for the most accurate entrants. A January 2022 methodology note documents its first wave.