News from the frontier of AI forecasting

FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.

2015-05-31The Forecasting Machine

Crowdfunders and experts largely agreed on theatre projects — with different funding thresholds

A 2015 comment about art and expertise provides a starting point for comparing Kickstarter theatre funding with expert evaluations and later project outcomes.

2014-09-06The Forecasting Machine

When crowd forecasting reached the Wall Street Journal

A September 2014 Wall Street Journal clipping prompted Émile Servan-Schreiber to point readers toward Hypermind and the research behind crowd forecasts.

2014-08-20The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind’s 2014 US launch and geopolitical contest

An August 2014 announcement introduced Hypermind’s US version and a €10,000 geopolitical contest, with early research explaining how the market worked.

2014-02-19The Forecasting Machine

Lumenogic-backed marketing research wins a track award in 2014

Two February 2014 announcements celebrated Lumenogic-backed research. The authors’ records establish the award’s scope, while their later journal paper documents a corporate forecasting tournament.

2013-10-18The Forecasting Machine

At École Militaire in 2013, forecasting becomes a question of collective intelligence

A contemporary account of Émile Servan-Schreiber’s October 2013 lecture connects prediction markets, dispersed knowledge and the measurement of geopolitical forecasting.

2013-07-22The Forecasting Machine

Lumenogic and the Good Judgment Project’s third-season market, July 2013

Two near-identical July 2013 updates announce a new prediction-market platform for the Good Judgment Project. Company history and primary research place the launch in context.