News from the frontier of AI forecasting

FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.

Forecasts

2026-07-15The Forecasting Machine

Will the USA Bomb Iranian Territory in June 2026? A Forecast at 50/50

The Forecasting Machine put the chance of a U.S. bombing operation on Iranian territory near even odds at the start of June, before new evidence sharply changed the assessment.

Forecasts

2026-07-15The Forecasting Machine

When Will the USA Sustain a One-Month Ceasefire With Iran?

The Forecasting Machine initially made Q3 2026 the likeliest window for a full month without U.S. attacks on Iran, then revised the distribution as the ceasefire repeatedly came under pressure.

Forecasts

2026-07-15The Forecasting Machine

Will Russia Accept a Permanent Ukraine Ceasefire by the End of 2026?

The Forecasting Machine gives Russia only about a 7% chance of accepting a permanent ceasefire by the end of 2026 as active fighting and incompatible terms outweigh mounting pressure for a deal.

2026-04-28Theodore Balick

The Architecture Behind Real-Time Forecast Updates

A walkthrough of how a single news event propagates through ingestion, relevance scoring, and ensemble re-aggregation in under a minute.