FORAXION TIMESOCTOBER 2026

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2026-08-03The Forecasting Machine

Play money, same ballpark: Hypermind’s 12-year accuracy benchmark against Polymarket and Kalshi

Hypermind published the data from 1,141 play-money markets resolved since 2014 and compared them with Polymarket and Kalshi. The report concludes the three are at parity, and an independent commentator agreed that parity, not victory, is the defensible reading.

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