The Forecasting MachineOpen interactive report

Will Cory Booker (D) win the New Jersey U.S. Senate election on November 3, 2026?

Resolves Yes if Cory Booker (D) is certified as the winner of the New Jersey U.S. Senate seat contested on November 3, 2026, and No otherwise. If the contest is not decided on election night — because of a runoff, a ranked-choice tabulation, or a recount — it resolves on the final certified result. Declared candidates: Cory Booker (D); Justin Murphy (R).

Forecasted on

Forecast probabilities

  • Yes: 98.8%
  • No: 1.3%

Reasoning

The forecast is Yes: 98.8% and No: 1.3%. Booker’s long-standing statewide advantage, the current political climate, and his campaign’s substantial edge make a loss possible but highly unlikely.

Yes — A strong baseline, reinforced by late evidence

New Jersey’s Senate history supplies a powerful starting point: no Republican has won a Senate seat there since 1972, and Booker won reelection by 16 points in 2020. Cook rates the contest Solid Democrat [a10, a11, a2]. The campaign resources point the same way: Booker had $22.6 million in cash on hand, while Murphy had less than $10,000, and Republican super-PACs withdrew their New Jersey advertising funds [e1, e67].

Late-cycle indicators also favor Democrats. A Fairleigh Dickinson poll found likely voters preferred Democratic congressional candidates 55% to 32%; Trump’s approval in New Jersey was 29%, and only 10% of voters identified as MAGA supporters [e160, e162, e169]. Democrats had also returned more mail ballots than Republicans and substantially outnumbered them in reported early voting [e64, e110, e124]. These are not direct counts of votes for Booker, but they reinforce the state’s Democratic lean. National generic-ballot polling showed a Democratic advantage as well [e171, e172].

The available Senate polling is mixed in its margin, not its direction: a September survey showed Booker ahead 49% to 43%, while an Activote poll later reported a much wider lead [e91, e125]. Forecasts and prediction markets put his chances near 97%–98%, consistent with a race in which an upset would be a surprise [e92, e5]. Murphy’s campaign also faced criticism over remarks about Muslims and Arabs, a potential liability in a diverse state [e17, e18].

No — A narrow path, but not a persuasive one

The strongest caution is that the September head-to-head poll showed a six-point lead rather than an inevitable blowout [e91]. Polls can miss late movement, and party registration or early-ballot returns do not establish how all voters will ultimately vote. The reported voter-roll concerns add uncertainty, but the available information does not show that they would materially change the outcome [e165, e166, e167]. As with any election, an unexpected event before certification remains possible.

Why the probabilities are so lopsided

The evidence converges: an unusually durable Democratic statewide baseline, a large financial and organizational gap, favorable late-cycle polling and turnout indicators, and market expectations all point toward Booker. The closer head-to-head poll and ordinary uncertainty justify retaining a small chance of a Republican win, but they do not outweigh the broader picture. That balance supports Yes at 98.8% and No at 1.3%.

Update summary

New reporting adds a Democratic special-election win in New Jersey and a low Trump approval reading, modestly reinforcing the state’s existing Democratic tilt [e161, e162]. Voter-roll concerns have also been reported, but there is no evidence they would materially alter the Senate result [e165, e166, e167].

Cited evidence