The Forecasting MachineOpen interactive report

Will Seth Bodnar (I) win the Montana U.S. Senate election on November 3, 2026?

Resolves Yes if Seth Bodnar (I) is certified as the winner of the Montana U.S. Senate seat contested on November 3, 2026, and No otherwise. If the contest is not decided on election night — because of a runoff, a ranked-choice tabulation, or a recount — it resolves on the final certified result. Declared candidates: Seth Bodnar (I); Kurt Alme (R); Alani Bankhead (D).

Forecasted on

Forecast probabilities

  • Yes: 5.5%
  • No: 94.5%

Reasoning

Seth Bodnar has a 5.5% chance of winning; Kurt Alme is the clear favorite, with a 94.5% chance of victory. Bodnar’s profile, fundraising, and late endorsements give him a plausible path, but the polls, Montana’s Republican record, and the continued split among Alme’s opponents make that path narrow.

Yes — 5.5%: A credible campaign, but a steep climb

Bodnar is not a typical independent candidate: he has a prominent résumé, raised more in individual donations than Alme, and has drawn support from Democrats and independents, including former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and former Montana Democratic Party chair Shannon O’Brien [a3, a8, e144, e143, e218]. His final campaign blitz and plan to visit major population centers could help him attract voters looking for an alternative to the major parties [e223, e224].

There are also possible openings in the electorate. Democrats lead the national congressional preference question, and political forecasters have shifted a number of races toward them [e234, e233]. Bankhead’s campaign has faced criticism over alleged payments to a former staffer that were not reported in FEC filings, potentially giving some Democratic-leaning voters another reason to consider Bodnar [e230, e231, e232]. An earlier poll also found Bodnar ahead of Alme in a hypothetical two-way contest, suggesting that consolidation could matter [e69].

But the conditions for that route are demanding. Bankhead remains on the ballot despite pressure to withdraw, and her claims that Democratic officials offered her a job to leave the race have kept the dispute over consolidation in the news [e55, e102, e104]. Even if some of her support moves to Bodnar, he would still need either substantial late movement or a sizable polling error.

No — 94.5%: Alme’s durable lead and a divided opposition

The strongest evidence is the consistent polling advantage for Alme. The Montana Free Press–Eagleton survey put him eight points ahead, and the late-October Quantus poll showed him at 43.8%, compared with 28.2% for Bodnar and 20.6% for Bankhead. Other surveys, including one commissioned by Alme’s campaign and a NonStop Local poll, likewise showed Alme in front [a1, a5, e171, e73, e8]. The precise margin varies, but the overall signal is consistent: Bodnar is trailing, and Bankhead’s continued candidacy leaves a substantial share of non-Republican voters outside his column.

The broader political terrain also favors Alme. Republicans have won 24 of Montana’s last 26 statewide or federal races, while Alme has endorsements from prominent Republican leaders. Trump campaigned for him in Kalispell, and Vice President JD Vance held a rally for him in Belgrade during the final week [a2, a3, e95, e98, e219, e222]. A study also found Montana had one of the country’s largest Republican in-migrations [e225]. A late report that officials excluded about 800 petition signatures connected to Bodnar’s qualification effort adds an unwelcome complication, though it does not by itself change the fact that he is an active candidate [e220].

Why the balance is 5.5% to 94.5%

The case for Bodnar is real: unusually strong fundraising, crossover appeal, prominent endorsements, and some possibility that late voters consolidate behind him. But these indicators have not overcome Alme’s polling lead, and the latest survey still shows a wide gap with less than a week to go. Montana’s partisan baseline and Bankhead’s continued presence further reduce the chance that Bodnar can assemble the coalition required to win. That leaves a meaningful but small upset possibility: 5.5% Yes, 94.5% No.

Update summary

New allegations of unreported payments in Bankhead’s campaign could give some voters another reason to consider Bodnar, while forged-signature charges and the exclusion of petition signatures create a campaign complication for Bodnar [e220, e230, e231, e232]. A new migration study modestly reinforces Montana’s Republican tilt [e225], but the developments are limited and point in mixed directions.

Cited evidence