The Forecasting MachineOpen interactive report

Will Annie Andrews (D) win the South Carolina U.S. Senate election on November 3, 2026?

Resolves Yes if Annie Andrews (D) is certified as the winner of the South Carolina U.S. Senate seat contested on November 3, 2026, and No otherwise. If the contest is not decided on election night — because of a runoff, a ranked-choice tabulation, or a recount — it resolves on the final certified result. Declared candidates: Annie Andrews (D); Darline Graham (R).

Forecasted on

Forecast probabilities

  • Yes: 29%
  • No: 71%

Reasoning

Annie Andrews has a 29.0% chance of winning; Darline Graham is favored, with a 71.0% chance of holding the seat for Republicans. The race is much closer than South Carolina’s political history would suggest, but the polling still shows no sustained Andrews lead.

Yes — A narrow opening for Andrews

The strongest argument for Andrews is that the race has become genuinely competitive. A New York Times/Siena poll found the candidates tied at 48%, while other late surveys put Graham only one to four points ahead. Forecast analysts have responded by moving the race from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” [e367, e370, e372, e376].

Andrews also benefits from a favorable national environment for Democrats: generic-ballot polls show a substantial Democratic lead, while President Trump’s approval is low. She has raised far more than Graham, and former Republican governor David Beasley joined former Democratic governor Jim Hodges in endorsing her. Graham, meanwhile, has faced criticism over her command of national-security issues and a refusal by her former primary rival, Ralph Norman, to campaign for her [e368, e381, e386, e394, e408, e414, e415].

These factors make an upset plausible. A tied poll is not merely evidence that Andrews is performing respectably in a red state; it puts her close enough that ordinary polling error, turnout differences, or a broader Democratic wave could tip the result.

No — The state’s partisan gravity still favors Graham

The historical baseline remains difficult for Andrews: South Carolina has not elected a Democrat statewide since 2006. The polling offers little proof that this pattern has been broken. The Siena survey is tied, but other late polls give Graham a small lead, and none establishes a clear Andrews advantage [a6, e367, e372, e374].

Graham also has important sources of support. Trump endorsed her and campaigned for her, while Republican groups committed substantial outside spending to the race. Fox News and Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted their ratings toward greater competitiveness, but still classified the contest as Lean Republican [e376, e378, e400, e402]. Andrews’s financial advantage is significant, yet fundraising totals alone cannot ensure that her support translates into votes—especially in a state where Republican voters have usually prevailed.

Why Graham remains favored

The evidence pulls in both directions: a strong Democratic national climate, an unusually weak and divisive Republican candidacy, and near-tied polls all raise Andrews’s odds above the state’s historical baseline. But the latest surveys still lean slightly toward Graham overall, the highest-profile poll is a tie rather than an Andrews lead, and South Carolina’s partisan history remains a substantial obstacle. Taken together, that warrants a real possibility of an Andrews victory, but leaves Graham the more likely winner: Yes, 29.0%; No, 71.0%.

Update summary

The NYT/Siena tie and other key signs of a competitive race were already part of the previous assessment [e367, e376]. New national polling and commentary broadly reinforce an existing Democratic-friendly environment rather than provide a distinct South Carolina development [e410, e412].

Cited evidence