The Forecasting MachineOpen interactive report

Will Everett Wess (D) win the Alabama U.S. Senate election on November 3, 2026?

Resolves Yes if Everett Wess (D) is certified as the winner of the Alabama U.S. Senate seat contested on November 3, 2026, and No otherwise. If the contest is not decided on election night — because of a runoff, a ranked-choice tabulation, or a recount — it resolves on the final certified result. Declared candidates: Everett Wess (D); Barry Moore (R).

Forecasted on

Forecast probabilities

  • Yes: 1.8%
  • No: 98.2%

Reasoning

Everett Wess has a 1.8% chance of winning Alabama’s U.S. Senate seat; Barry Moore is overwhelmingly favored, leaving the probability of a Wess loss at 98.2%. A strong national climate for Democrats and signs of increased Democratic engagement create a narrow path to an upset, but Alabama’s partisan lean, the latest state polling, and the candidates’ campaign resources all point strongly the other way.

Yes — a narrow path through a Democratic wave

Nationally, Democrats have led the generic congressional ballot by roughly 8–12 points in several late-cycle polls, while President Trump’s approval has been in the low-to-mid 30s. Independent voters have also leaned Democratic in national polling. That environment could lift Democratic turnout and improve Wess’s performance, even in a state that usually favors Republicans by a wide margin [e61, e64, e71, e80, e90].

There are signs of greater Democratic engagement in Alabama: Democrats made up 43% of primary ballots, up from 22% four years earlier, and voters with Democratic primary histories outnumbered those with Republican histories by 75,000. Doug Jones has also run closer to Tommy Tuberville in some counties than the state’s partisan baseline might suggest. Democratic voter-mobilization efforts and the open seat add modest reasons not to make Wess’s chances zero [e4, e82, e89, e76, e79].

No — Alabama’s fundamentals and the race-specific evidence

The starting conditions are exceptionally difficult for Wess. Republicans hold all 23 statewide offices, Trump carried Alabama by 30 points in 2024, and Democrats have not won a Senate general election in the state since 1992. Doug Jones’s 2017 special-election victory came against an unusually vulnerable opponent; it is a poor guide to a regular contest. Even well-known Democrats have struggled to overcome the state’s Republican advantage [a2, a5].

The most direct evidence is the Alabama Daily News/Gray Television poll: Moore led Wess 50% to 35%, with 15% undecided. An earlier poll also showed Moore ahead by 15 points, offering no clear sign that the race has been moving toward Wess [e54, e55, e6]. Moore is a three-term congressman with Trump’s endorsement, while Wess is a Birmingham attorney and former municipal judge without a demonstrated statewide crossover advantage [a3, a5, a12].

Money is another substantial obstacle. Through September 30, Moore had raised $685,600, compared with $36,300 for Wess; earlier reports also showed Moore with a much larger campaign operation. Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. The Democratic-favorable national environment may narrow the margin, but the available evidence does not suggest it is likely to erase a large Alabama-specific deficit [e1, a5].

Why the probabilities are so far apart

The Democratic wave indicators and increased primary engagement justify leaving some probability for an upset. But they are outweighed by Alabama’s longstanding Republican baseline, Moore’s advantages, and a recent poll showing a 15-point lead. Taken together, the evidence supports a 1.8% probability that Wess wins and a 98.2% probability that he does not.

Update summary

A new national poll found a narrower Democratic generic-ballot lead than several earlier surveys, but it does not provide new evidence about the Alabama Senate race [e110, e61, e78]. The newly reported Trump campaign itinerary adds little beyond his already-known Alabama rally, and no new race-specific polling or major campaign development has emerged [e107, e14, e54].

Cited evidence