The Forecasting MachineOpen interactive report

Will Marquita Bradshaw (D) win the Tennessee U.S. Senate election on November 3, 2026?

Resolves Yes if Marquita Bradshaw (D) is certified as the winner of the Tennessee U.S. Senate seat contested on November 3, 2026, and No otherwise. If the contest is not decided on election night — because of a runoff, a ranked-choice tabulation, or a recount — it resolves on the final certified result. Declared candidates: Marquita Bradshaw (D); Bill Hagerty (R).

Forecasted on

Forecast probabilities

  • Yes: 0.7%
  • No: 99.3%

Reasoning

Marquita Bradshaw has a 0.7% chance of winning; Bill Hagerty is favored to win, with the No outcome at 99.3%. A strong national environment for Democrats offers a small opening, but Tennessee’s partisan lean, the race-specific polling, and the campaigns’ vast resource gap point overwhelmingly the other way.

Yes — Bradshaw wins (0.7%) | A national tailwind, but a very long shot

Democrats are heading into the midterms with a substantial national advantage: recent polls put them about 8 points ahead on the generic congressional ballot, while Trump’s approval has been weak. A surge in early voting in Shelby County and a sharp jump on Nashville’s first day could indicate greater Democratic engagement. Trump’s approval was also underwater in a Tennessee poll, giving Bradshaw some reason to hope the national mood reaches into the state [e159, e12, e1, e163, e166, e173].

But these are indirect signals. Higher turnout in Democratic-leaning areas does not establish a statewide shift large enough to overcome Hagerty’s lead, and national polling is not a forecast of this Senate contest. The available race poll instead had Hagerty ahead 58% to 33% [e5].

No — Hagerty wins (99.3%) | The state and the race-specific evidence align

Tennessee’s Republican advantage is durable: Hagerty beat Bradshaw by 27 points in their 2020 matchup, and the race is rated solidly Republican. Republicans’ strength in statewide contests and the legislature reinforces that baseline [a4, a2, a9, a10]. The latest direct poll—a 25-point Hagerty lead—shows no sign of the dramatic movement Bradshaw would need [e5].

The campaigns are also operating on radically different scales. Hagerty had about $5.3 million on hand, compared with roughly $26,000 for Bradshaw, leaving her little capacity for statewide voter outreach or late paid advertising [e69]. Hagerty faced no Republican primary challenger, while Bradshaw had to emerge from a crowded Democratic primary [e3, e6, e7]. And although turnout indicators are mixed—some Democratic-leaning areas saw notable increases, while Tennessee’s statewide early voting was below its 2022 level—the numbers do not demonstrate a statewide realignment [e107, e159, e70].

Why the balance favors No

The national mood and pockets of increased urban turnout justify retaining a small chance of an unusual upset. But they are outweighed by the state’s Republican baseline, the large deficit in the only race-specific poll, and the fundraising gap. With election day near and early voting largely complete, there is little time for those broader forces to translate into the extraordinary shift Bradshaw would require. That balance supports Yes at 0.7% and No at 99.3%.

Update summary

No material new evidence about the Senate race has emerged; new national polling and turnout figures largely reaffirm patterns already known. With the November 3 election approaching [e22], the outlook remains essentially unchanged.

Cited evidence