The Forecasting MachineOpen interactive report

Will James W. Byrd (D) win the Wyoming U.S. Senate election on November 3, 2026?

Resolves Yes if James W. Byrd (D) is certified as the winner of the Wyoming U.S. Senate seat contested on November 3, 2026, and No otherwise. If the contest is not decided on election night — because of a runoff, a ranked-choice tabulation, or a recount — it resolves on the final certified result. Declared candidates: James W. Byrd (D); Harriet Hageman (R).

Forecasted on

Forecast probabilities

  • Yes: 1%
  • No: 99%

Reasoning

The forecast is 1.0% Yes and 99.0% No: a Democratic win is possible, but Wyoming’s unusually strong Republican baseline makes a Hageman victory overwhelmingly more likely. The national environment gives Byrd a small tailwind, not evidence that this particular Senate race is close.

Yes — A wave could narrow the gap, but would need to do much more

The strongest case for Byrd is the national mood. Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by roughly eight to ten points in several recent measures, while President Trump’s approval is low; Democrats are also competing in Senate races across a broader map than usual [e65, e69, e82, e83, e59]. Reports that a Wyoming House race had become competitive offer a hint of Republican softness in the state, though that is not evidence about the Senate contest itself [e52]. Byrd has a decade of experience in the Wyoming House, is campaigning on public lands and limits on executive power, and has emphasized working with Republicans [a2, a14, e33, e44].

But these factors only make an upset conceivable. A national swing would have to overcome Wyoming’s deep partisan lean, and there is no reported general-election poll showing Byrd close to Hageman. His decisive Democratic primary win establishes his nomination, not statewide general-election strength [a15].

No — Wyoming’s baseline and Hageman’s advantages dominate

Wyoming has not elected a Democrat statewide since 2006; Republicans hold every statewide office and supermajorities in both legislative chambers [a12]. That is a formidable starting point for Byrd to overcome, and his previous statewide run for Secretary of State ended in defeat [a14].

Hageman won the Republican primary with 65% and has Trump’s endorsement [e3, e6]. The state Republican Party urged voters to support her, and the National Federation of Independent Business endorsed her; her campaign reported substantial cash on hand [e78, e46, e1]. She declined to debate Byrd, limiting his opportunity to raise his profile, while the reporting supplies no direct Senate polling that suggests a competitive race [e7, e64].

Why the balance favors No

The national polling is meaningful evidence of Republican headwinds, and the Wyoming House report counsels against treating the state as immune to them. Yet a national Democratic lead does not erase Wyoming’s much stronger Republican baseline, particularly without Senate-specific evidence of a close contest. The balance therefore supports 1.0% Yes and 99.0% No.

Update summary

A new national poll continues to show a substantial Democratic generic-ballot lead, but it does not measure the Wyoming Senate race and largely confirms the national trend already known [e83]. The Wyoming Republican Party urged support for Hageman, a modest reinforcement of her existing advantages [e78].

Cited evidence