The Forecasting MachineOpen interactive report

Who will win the Texas gubernatorial election on November 3, 2026?

The election will feature incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott against Democratic nominee State Representative Gina Hinojosa, and Libertarian Pat Dixon. The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026.

Forecasted on

Forecast probabilities

  • Gina Hinojosa: 19.8%
  • Greg Abbott: 80.3%

Reasoning

Greg Abbott is favored to win, with an 80.3% probability, while Gina Hinojosa has a meaningful 19.8% chance. The race is much closer than Texas’s recent gubernatorial history would suggest, but the latest polls and the state’s Republican lean still point to Abbott.

Gina Hinojosa: A real opening, but a difficult path

Hinojosa’s case begins with a contest that has repeatedly looked competitive. Polls in September found the candidates tied, and an early-October YouGov survey put Hinojosa narrowly ahead; another survey briefly showed her leading by four points [e17, e8, e15]. Democratic turnout indicators strengthen the possibility that polls have missed some of her support: Democrats cast 150,000 more primary votes than Republicans, Latino early voting rose sharply, and many voters who skipped the 2024 presidential election turned out early [e42, e45, e48]. Democrats also showed stronger early turnout among prior voters and people who had sat out the previous midterm [e29].

The campaign has worked to capitalize on that energy, with Hinojosa and James Talarico rallying in Fort Bend County and campaigning together in Weslaco [e44, e49]. Abbott’s refusal to attend a debate gave Hinojosa an opportunity to press her case outside the Governor’s Mansion [e2]. And the race’s classification moved toward greater competitiveness, a sign that forecasters see more than a routine Republican win [e39]. These are substantial reasons not to treat an upset as remote. But turnout measures do not tell us exactly how those voters will vote, and the latest polls do not show Hinojosa carrying her momentum into a clear lead.

Greg Abbott: The structural favorite, with late polling on his side

Abbott’s strongest case is the combination of a durable partisan advantage and a modest but consistent lead in the more recent surveys. Texas has elected Republican governors for decades, and Abbott’s previous wins were by double-digit margins [a4, a10]. The recent race is plainly tighter than those results: a September poll tied the candidates, and Hinojosa briefly led in an October survey [e17, e8]. But the later polls swung back toward Abbott: Emerson showed him ahead 49% to 45%, ActiVote found a five-point lead, and another late-October poll put him up 48% to 46% [e23, a1, e24].

Resources and organization also favor the incumbent. Abbott has held a substantial financial advantage, while his campaign’s large communications operation contrasts with Hinojosa’s more limited spending [a4, a8, e6, e36]. He has pressed a property-tax proposal, campaigned at Republican get-out-the-vote events, and encouraged supporters to send voting reminders [e50, e41, e37]. Hinojosa has also campaigned actively, but the available evidence shows Abbott with both a late polling edge and the advantages of incumbency in a Republican-leaning state.

Why Abbott is favored, but not overwhelmingly

The evidence points in different directions, but not with equal force. Hinojosa’s polling leads and unusually strong Democratic and Latino turnout make the contest more uncertain than Texas’s history alone would imply. Still, the recent polls favor Abbott, his prior statewide victories establish a strong baseline, and his campaign has far greater resources. With no reported vote count or winner yet available, turnout signals should be treated as evidence of a competitive race—not as a result [a2, a3]. Taken together, these considerations support 80.3% for Greg Abbott and 19.8% for Gina Hinojosa.

Cited evidence