The Forecasting MachineOpen interactive report

Will Angie Nixon (D) win the Florida U.S. Senate special election on November 3, 2026?

Resolves Yes if Angie Nixon (D) is certified as the winner of the Florida U.S. Senate seat contested on November 3, 2026, and No otherwise. If the contest is not decided on election night — because of a runoff, a ranked-choice tabulation, or a recount — it resolves on the final certified result. Declared candidates: Angie Nixon (D); Ashley Moody (R).

Forecasted on

Forecast probabilities

  • Yes: 7.5%
  • No: 92.5%

Reasoning

Nixon has a 7.5% chance of winning; Moody has a 92.5% chance of holding the seat. The strongest evidence is the agreement among late polls that Moody leads, reinforced by Florida’s Republican lean and Moody’s campaign advantages. A Democratic national tailwind and signs of energetic Democratic turnout keep an upset possible, but do not outweigh that evidence.

Yes — 7.5%: A favorable national tide could narrow the gap

The best case for Nixon is that this is not an ordinary Republican year nationally. Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by roughly eight points in several measures, and dissatisfaction with the Trump administration could make the race more competitive than Florida’s recent statewide results suggest [e380, e384, e386, e388]. Early voting offers another hopeful signal: Democrats have turned out a larger share of their 2022 voters and have been especially active among voters who skipped that election [e353, e354]. Nixon has also drawn high-profile support from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and held a well-attended Kissimmee event [e357, e360].

There are vulnerabilities on Moody’s side, too. Nixon has attacked her over the disputed Medicaid-to-nonprofit transfer, and Florida’s Republican registration advantage does not mechanically determine how people vote [a10, e148, e363]. Some late polls are close enough that ordinary polling error could produce a different result.

But this path requires more than a favorable national mood. Recent surveys repeatedly put Moody ahead, and early-vote participation rates do not show that Nixon has erased the gap. A Democratic win remains plausible if turnout breaks sharply her way or polls miss substantially—but those are contingencies, not the central forecast.

No — 92.5%: Polling and Florida’s partisan structure point to Moody

The most direct evidence is unusually consistent. The New York Times/Siena poll puts Moody ahead by six points; Echelon finds an eight-point lead; ActiVote reports six; and St. Pete Polls and the University of North Florida each show a four-point lead [e343, e344, e346, e348, e121]. In combination, these surveys make a late Nixon surge difficult to infer from the available evidence. Prediction markets have likewise treated Moody as a heavy favorite [a12].

The broader setting favors her as well. Florida has voted Republican by substantial margins in recent statewide races, Democrats have not won a Senate race there since 2012, and Republicans hold a registration advantage of about 1.5 million [a6, a11, e304, e363]. Moody brings incumbency, a large fundraising edge, and support from prominent Republicans including Trump and DeSantis [a2, e364, e366]. Nixon won her primary and has worked to mobilize Democrats, but her campaign has substantially fewer resources [a4, e316].

The final stretch has added risks for Nixon. Her response to questions about Cuba prompted criticism from Moody and public distancing by several Florida Democrats [e349, e352, e373]. Complaints concerning Nixon’s bookstore and former nonprofit have also generated adverse headlines; these are allegations, not findings of wrongdoing [e359, e362, e376]. Meanwhile, Democrats’ stronger turnout rates have not translated into a clear raw-ballot advantage: early-vote totals were roughly tied, and Republicans later held a modest lead in early and mail ballots [e353, e375].

Why the probabilities favor No

The evidence points in two directions, but not with equal force. National conditions and Democratic turnout create a real upset route; against that, five recent polls agree that Moody leads, while Florida’s partisan baseline and Moody’s resource advantage make the polling result credible. The polls could be wrong, and a national wave could matter more than expected, but neither signal currently outweighs the convergent evidence. That balance supports Yes at 7.5% and No at 92.5%.

Update summary

Several newly released Florida polls independently show Moody ahead by four to eight points, reinforcing her advantage [e343, e344, e346, e348]. Nixon also faced fresh criticism over her Cuba comments and new watchdog complaints, though the allegations remain unsubstantiated [e349, e359, e362].

Cited evidence