The Forecasting MachineOpen interactive report

Qui sera élu président de la République française lors de l'élection présidentielle d'avril-mai 2027 ?

Cette question porte sur le résultat de l'élection présidentielle française qui se tiendra en avril et mai 2027. Le président actuel, Emmanuel Macron, n'est pas éligible pour un nouveau mandat consécutif en raison de la limite de deux mandats. De nombreux candidats potentiels se sont déjà déclarés, représentant diverses tendances politiques. Les dates officielles du premier tour sont le 18 avril 2027 et du second tour le 2 mai 2027.

Forecasted on

Forecast probabilities

  • Marine Le Pen: 51%
  • David Lisnard: 2.6%
  • Bruno Retailleau: 2.3%
  • Christine Lagarde: 3%
  • Édouard Philippe: 10.8%
  • Gabriel Attal: 3.3%
  • Raphael Glucksmann: 6.5%
  • François Hollande: 0.6%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 3.6%
  • Autre candidat: 16.4%

Reasoning

Marine Le Pen is the clear favorite at 51.00%, but that is roughly a coin flip, not a lock. Her main risks are a disputed legal path to the ballot and the long record of early poll leaders stumbling. The rest of the probability is spread thinly: "Autre candidat" (16.37%, largely a Bardella replacement scenario), then Philippe (10.75%) and Glucksmann (6.50%).

Marine Le Pen (51.00%)

Her polling is formidable. First-round intentions run about 34-37% in the latest Harris wave, against 18-19% for Mélenchon [a101, a127]. She leads every tested runoff: roughly 58% against Philippe, 60% against Glucksmann and 68% against Mélenchon in Harris [a101], and 52.5-47.5 against Philippe even in Elabe's tighter October poll [a32]. Kalshi priced her at about 53-54% around 20-22 October, a market signal, not a frequency [a38, a40]. The July appeal ruling left her free to run [a19], and her cassation appeal suspends her sentence according to RTL and Sud Ouest [a8, a61]. Unrest over living costs seems to help her, or at least not to hurt her [a78, a117].

Against that, she lost both runoffs she reached, with 33.9% in 2017 and 41.45% in 2022 [b2]. Balladur in 1995 and Fillon in 2017 show that early favorites can fail [b1], though these are selected cases, not a measured rate. Midi Libre says polls six months out are reliable roughly one time in eight [a96]. In Elabe's poll, 46% of those expressing an intention said they could still change their mind [a32]. Eligibility is also contested. Didier Guérin argues that an annulment would revive the five-year ban, or that she could not run if no ruling comes by 26 March, while prosecutor general Heitz holds the opposite view [a6]. The Cour de cassation takes up the QPCs on 16 December [a8].

Édouard Philippe (10.75%)

He is the non-RN candidate with the best runoff profile, and Darmanin says he is best placed in the centre [a131]. But he has slid to 11-14% and now trails Mélenchon by five to seven points [a101]. He also refuses the primary that Attal, Retailleau and Lisnard now accept [a102]. His path needs a centre-right consolidation around him plus a first-round qualification.

Raphaël Glucksmann (6.50%)

He won the center-left primary with about 66% [a68], which gave him legitimacy. But his post-primary surge has flattened at 11-13% [a127], and he rules out any alliance with LFI [a97]. He polls worse than Philippe in the latest runoff tests [a101].

Jean-Luc Mélenchon (3.63%)

He is likely to reach the runoff, qualifying in every Harris scenario [a101]. But he loses about 68-32 to Le Pen because of very weak vote transfers [a77, a101].

Gabriel Attal (3.25%), Christine Lagarde (3.00%), David Lisnard (2.63%), Bruno Retailleau (2.25%), François Hollande (0.62%)

- Attal: he is declared and pushing a primary, but he scores only about 9-10% in the relevant configurations [a81, a112]. - Lagarde: she is leaving the ECB in February, and the centre is speculating about her [a50, a51]. Yet she said in September that a candidacy at 70 "would not be at all a good idea", and no concrete preparation is documented [a50]. - Lisnard: he is rising to about 9% [a101], but his presidential stature rates lower than Philippe's or Retailleau's [a108]. - Retailleau: he gets 5-8% as LR candidate and about 10% as sole right-centre candidate [a101]. - Hollande: he has said he might run only in exceptional circumstances, and polls no higher than 7% [a96, a119].

Autre candidat (16.37%)

This bucket is mostly Jordan Bardella, the likely substitute if Le Pen is barred. He polled competitively against Philippe in earlier tests [a29, a23] and "stands ready as the number two" [a103]. However, the RN publicly runs a "Marine présidente, Bardella government" ticket, and no plan B is documented [a43, a104]. The bucket also covers Zemmour, Riner, Polony and late entrants [a71, a95].

Balance of evidence

Le Pen's dominant poll position and the market price support a probability of about one half. Eligibility risk, the weakness of six-month polls, and the possibility of a consolidated opponent keep it from rising higher. If she is blocked, much of the RN's strength would probably pass to Bardella, which is why "Autre" is larger than any single rival. Philippe remains the best-positioned conventional challenger despite his decline. The remaining candidates hold only small residual probabilities.

Cited evidence